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How do patent filings behave during an economic crisis
Patently resilient
Patent filings are often said to be practically immune to economic
crisis. This is mainly because the number of filings is closely linked to
R&D spending, and in economic downturns, corporations tend not to reduce
those expenditures in order to keep or improve their recovery prospects.
Nevertheless, companies can become more selective managing their
portfolio and not maintain all their patents, especially the ones not bringing
any revenue.
Signs of a slow down
Today, almost all patent offices are registering a slow down in
their number of filings. At the USPTO, under the current trend, patent filings
should drop by 2%. As a consequence, the office will collect roughly $100
million below projections this budget year. Other analyses predict a 10% drop
in filings.
In China, the yearly filing growth rate is now 10%, that’s
11% below what it was a year earlier.
In Europe, the picture is mixed. 2008 saw a decrease in patents from
Korea and Japan while many other countries increased their filings.
Lessons from history
An analysis, referenced below, done on patent filings in the 30s
shows that crises are only one factor affecting the number of filings. New
technology can result in more filings. Today, China and its patent filing fever
will most likely positively influence filing trends. All in all, the patent
resilience is due to the large number of factors affecting companies’
filing behaviour.
Further reading
A paper covering the 1929 crisis and its influence on patent
filings
In China, too, the positive trend slows down
USPTO latest statements on filing trends
Latest EPO figures
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